June 11, 2010

Over/Under: Florida wins 12 games

Over/Under: Florida will win 12.5 games.

Welcome to the fifth annual edition of this series, one that started back in May of 2006 when I chose the under on Jarvis Moss making 13 sacks, which would have set a UF single-season record (He finished with 7.5, fewer that teammate Derrick Harvey's 11).

First, a review of the three Over/Under stories from last year. The initial one was 13.5 wins for the Gators, meaning they had to go 14-0 to be over. I picked under, predicting a 13-1 finish, and nailed it.

The second one was 10.0 points allowed per game for the defense, which would have set a school record. I chose under, which was a tad unrealistic. No one in the country gave up less than 10 points a game, and the Gators, who were fourth in scoring defense, allowed 12.4.

The last one was Emmanuel Moody rushing for 700 yards. I chose the under and was right when he gained just 378 yards, ranking fourth on the team behind Tim Tebow, Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. Five years into the Urban Meyer era, the Gators have won two national championships but had only one 700-yard running back (Demps, 745 in 2009).

We'll start the 2010 over/under series with the same topic as last year, only with a one-game reduction in number of wins. The Gators have some serious holes to fill with Tebow, the best player in Florida history, departing along with fellow NFL first-round draft pick cornerback Joe Haden, middle linebacker Brandon Spikes, defensive ends Jermaine Cunningham and Carlos Dunlap and the top three receivers.

To go over, they will have to finish 13-1 or better. It's a tall order without Tebow, but it's possible.


1) Meyer's track record.

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