3-2-1: Crucial week will shape SEC regular season title race
After increasing its current winning streak to eight games with victories at Auburn and Mississippi State this past week, Florida (22-5, 12-2 SEC) jumped two spots in the AP poll to No. 13 - and at this moment, is projected by many analysts as a No. 3 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
With last week in the books, now Inside the Gators brings its weekly 3-2-1 report, as we provide three observations, present two questions and make one prediction as the Gators head into crucial matchups at home against South Carolina on Tuesday night and then on the road Saturday at No. 11 Kentucky.
Three observations:
1. This upcoming week will prove key in determining whether the Gators (22-5, 12-2 SEC) can clinch their first SEC regular-season title since the 2013-14 season.
Currently, Florida sits atop the SEC standings tied with Kentucky (22-5, 12-2 SEC), which is fresh off of an 82-77 win against Georgia in Athens on Saturday night. Meanwhile, South Carolina (20-7, 10-4 SEC) has lost three of its past four, having dropped contests in the past two weeks to Alabama, Arkansas and, most recently, Vanderbilt on Saturday.
If the Gators were to win Tuesday against the Gamecocks, they would essentially knock South Carolina out of the regular-season title hunt. However, a loss on the road to Kentucky on Saturday could put Mike White’s group in a difficult spot in the standings (obviously depending on how both teams’ other results turn out).
Florida has games at home against South Carolina and Arkansas, and road contests at Kentucky and Vanderbilt left on its schedule, while Kentucky has road matchups against Missouri and Texas A&M and home meetings with UF and Vandy remaining.
Kentucky’s remaining SEC slate is arguably slightly easier than Florida’s, but this Saturday’s matchup could go a long way in determining the shape of the race.
2. Sophomore center Kevarrius Hayes opened a lot of eyes with his play this past weekend at Mississippi State.
Starting in the place of center John Egbunu (out for the season with a torn ACL), Hayes finished with nine points on 2-of-3 shooting (and 5-of-7 free throw shooting) to go along with 10 points and a game-high four blocks. Hayes was huge down the stretch, scoring to give the Gators a 54-52 lead with 1:57 left, pulling down a key defensive rebound and then blocking a Bulldogs field goal attempt a play later. He then closed out the game with three more rebounds (two coming on the offensive glass) and hit one of two attempts from the foul line to further seal the game.
Hayes has been one of Florida's most consistent players from an effort and hustle standpoint, especially on the defensive end of the floor this season. Although he isn't a big body like Egbunu, Hayes has proven to be an effective defender at the rim. How he fares against stronger bigs - and whether he manages to avoid foul trouble - will be worth watching down the stretch.
3. With nine points at Mississippi State this past Saturday, senior point guard Kasey Hill became the 52nd player in program history to join the 1,000-point club.
The interesting question now is who the next Gator to reach 1,000 points will be - and if that player is currently on the roster. Junior forward Devin Robinson is the closest with 835 career points at Florida, and he would certainly reach the milestone were he to return to school for his senior season - or go on an absolute tear to close the 2016-17 campaign.
As a sophomore, guard KeVaughn Allen already has 773 points at the collegiate level. He'd certainly reach the 1,000-point mark were he to return to school next year.
Egbunu, a redshirt junior, has 578 points as a Gator - and 816 at the collegiate level, including his lone season at USF. Graduate transfer guard Canyon Barry already has more than 1,000 points at the collegiate level, but his first four seasons were spent at the College of Charleston.
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Two questions heading into the week:
1. Will Barry and redshirt freshman forward Keith Stone be healthy enough to perform at a high level this upcoming week?
Barry suffered a sprained ankle late in Florida’s 57-52 road victory over Mississippi State on Saturday, and the graduate transfer guard didn't return to the game in the final minutes. However, after the game White said Barry wanted to return and that he doesn’t expect Barry’s injury to be too serious.
On Monday, White said Barry would be a game-time decision for the South Carolina matchup while adding that his ankle injury is "somewhat" minor.
Meanwhile, Stone has been dealing with issues with balance and dizziness as effects from his ear infection that sidelined him for two games. Since returning, Stone has gone scoreless on 0-of-7 shooting in 31 combined minutes on the court in four games.
"The guy got hardly any reps there for about two weeks in practice and it just takes time to come back from those things," White said of Stone. "He’s a shell of what he was, in the three of four games where he was terrific for us. And with our lack of depth, regardless, we need Keith back, especially with how banged up we are. We’ve got to have some production back from him, if we can.”
Especially with the shortage of depth in the frontcourt now with Egbunu sidelined, Florida could use Stone as an option at the five spot. The Gators will hope he can eventually be effective.
2. Can Florida do a better job of protecting the rim against South Carolina and Kentucky, especially with Egbunu sidelined for the remainder of the season?
Against Mississippi State, the Gators allowed the Bulldogs to outscore them in the paint 36-22. MSU also went 20-of-38 (52.6%) on two-point baskets despite shooting 2-of-23 from behind the arc. The absence of Egbunu was especially evident in that regard.
"John, for us, was terrific. He was probably one of the better defenders, per minute, in college basketball with his unique ability too move with his size and girth," White said. "He was an anchor with his communication and a goalie at the rim. John would clean up six or seven mistakes a game, which allowed us to be a top-five defensive team in the country. Kevarrius would at times, as well. But now you don't have two of those guys, you have one. It’s a big blow defensively. Can we be just as good? Yeah."
The Gators must now try to compensate for the loss of the 6-foot-11, 255-pound Egbunu on the defensive end of the floor, but it won't be an easy task.
One prediction: Florida will increase its winning streak to nine games with a home victory against South Carolina on Tuesday night.
After falling to the Gamecocks 57-53 in their last meeting on Jan. 18, the Gators will exact revenge and take an important step in the race for a conference regular-season crown. White will also have at least one win against 12 of 13 other SEC teams as Florida's head coach after Tuesday, with the only team remaining being Vanderbilt. South Carolina has been losing momentum lately, losing three of four and subsequently dropping out of the AP poll, so this is certainly a winnable game in the O'Dome for the Gators.
However, winning in Lexington may prove to be a much more difficult task. Kentucky is 13-2 at home this season, with its only losses at Rupp Arena coming against No. 5 UCLA and No. 3 Kansas. The Gators have defeated the Wildcats at Rupp Arena only once since the conclusion of the 2006-07 season, winning on Feb. 16, 2014, by 10 points en route to an eventual Final Four appearance.
Since the Gators swept Kentucky during the 2006-07 season, Florida has gone 1-8 in Lexington.
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