Behind Enemy Lines: Michigan

Florida is facing a familiar foe in Michigan in the Peach Bowl on Saturday. Although these two teams have faced each other a few times the last five years, both sides have gone through a few changes.

We invite TheWolverine.com's Austin Fox to find out more about Florida's latest opponent in 'Behind Enemy Lines.'

JF: As of Tuesday night, Michigan will be without three starters: junior defensive lineman Rashan Gary, junior linebacker Devin Bush Jr., and senior running back Karan Higdon have all decided to skip the bowl game to focus on preparing for the NFL draft. To sum up thats 1,178 yards rushing, 10 touchdowns, 123 tackles, 16.5 TFL and 8.5 sacks gone. How does Michigan replace those numbers?

AF: It will be difficult to fill the voids of junior linebacker Devin Bush and junior defensive end Rashan Gary, but senior running back Karan Higdon will actually be the toughest to replace. The Wolverines were without Gary for the whole month of October when he went down with injury, so they’ve been familiar to life without him — sophomore Kwity Paye filled in then and will start in his place.

Linebacker is arguably the deepest position on Michigan’s entire roster, so the loss of Bush actually won’t play as big an impact as most people think — junior Khaleke Hudson, redshirt sophomore Devin Gil and sophomore Josh Ross will be the primary ‘backers against Florida, but fifth-year senior Noah Furbush and junior Josh Uche (team-leading seven sacks) will see plenty of action as well.

The reason Higdon is the most significant loss of the bunch is because of U-M’s lack of production behind him. Junior Chris Evans was expected to have an outstanding 2018 season alongside the senior, but only wound up rushing for 403 yards (although injuries sidelined him for three games), while junior Tru Wilson (355 yards) was the only other rusher who saw significant playing time this year. Neither one is cut out to be an every-down back, so expect head coach Jim Harbaugh to take a running back-by-committee approach with the two, and perhaps even mix in sophomore fullback Ben Mason (seven touchdowns in 2018) as well.

JF: Any one else slated to miss the game? Any injury concerns?

AF: Rumors have swirled surrounding the statuses of junior cornerbacks David Long and Lavert Hill, but reports have recently surfaced that they’re practicing and plan to play. They are arguably the best corner tandem in the nation (helped lead Michigan to the second best pass defense in college football, allowing 145.9 yards per game), and a potential absence from either one would be a huge blow. Again, though, their statuses remains up in the air.

In regards to injuries, Michigan is incredibly healthy. Fifth-year senior right tackle Juwann Bushell-Beatty is the only player to mention here, as he missed the Ohio State game and saw redshirt freshman Andrew Stueber start in his place. It wouldn’t be a complete shock, though, if Stueber receives the start once again, regardless of Bushell-Beatty’s health.

It should also be noted that junior quarterback Shea Patterson’s backup — redshirt freshman Dylan McCaffrey — was lost for the year with a broken collarbone in mid-October. If something were to happen to Patterson against the Gators, redshirt sophomore Brandon Peters would be the next quarterback in.

JF: How does Michigan feel about this game? Are they sick of playing the Gators? I’ve seen some local writers, commentators lament the game, and even diminish Florida’s season. Are you seeing that from the program?

AF: The U-M players are saying all the right things about this game. Nobody has diminished its magnitude, or lessened its importance because it’s not a College Football Playoff showdown. The players themselves have given no indication they’re sick of facing Florida, but the same can’t be said for the fan base. They made it clear before the bowl matchups were even announced that they did not want to Michigan to play UF again and would have much rather seen LSU or even UCF. When it wound up being the Gators, the fans voiced their displeasure. Even though both Michigan and Florida are two of the premier programs in the sport, it’s a contest that has been seen now in three of the last four seasons.

There really hasn’t been any diminishing of UF’s season from the Michigan players, coaches, writers, fan base, etc. Wolverine fans found pleasure in poking fun at the Gators after U-M beat them in the last two meetings with Jim McElwain at the helm, but now realize Dan Mullen is a heck of a coach and seemingly has the program headed back in the right direction.

JF: What are the strengths and weaknesses of the Michigan defense? Without Gary and Bush can the defense stop the run as they have done this season?

AF: Perhaps the defense’s biggest strength is its IQ, and its ability to consistently be in the right place at the right time. Michigan was rarely out of position in 2018, and a big reason for that was due to the fact that it’s a very experienced group with a thorough understanding of defensive coordinator Don Brown’s aggressive scheme. Both the front seven and the back four consistently did their respective jobs at a high level, and it resulted in the team having the No. 1 defense in the country (262.5 yards per game allowed). A few weaknesses that hadn’t been seen all year were exposed against Ohio State, however — the defensive line wasn’t able to generate any kind of pass rush, and the secondary was picked apart by OSU redshirt sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins and an elite group of receivers. The lack of pressure from the interior defensive line, specifically, was something that we had seen glimpses of in 2018, and should be considered the main (and perhaps only) weakness on the defense.

It was touched on above, but despite the absences of Gary and Bush, U-M should still have no trouble stopping the run. The rush defense didn’t miss a beat when Paye filled in for Gary in October, and a deep and talented group of linebackers behind Bush should keep the unit producing at a high level.

JF: What are the strengths and weakness of this offense? How has Shea Patterson changed the offense this year for Michigan? Mullen is familiar with him but many Florida fans are not.

AF: The strength of the Michigan offense has been its ability to control the clock (34:46 per game, fourth highest in the country) by grinding out drives on the ground (214.3 yards per contest, 26th nationally), and by holding onto the football (just 10 turnovers on the year, tied for third fewest in the FBS). Patterson has been the key cog in U-M’s ball security (just five picks all year) and effectiveness, and has been a savior to the Michigan offense. The main reason for last season’s offensive struggles was due to subpar quarterback play, but Patterson’s arrival has improved the position in every way imaginable. Not only is he accurate and smart with the football, but his mobility both in and out of the pocket is something the Wolverines hadn’t had under Harbaugh. The junior signal-caller has a knack for escaping pressure, and is arguably a better thrower on the run than he is flat-footed.

Higdon has also played a crucial role in the offense’s turnaround, by developing into a workhorse running back for the first time in his career (224 carries for 1,178 yards and 10 touchdowns). The offense has been heavily criticized, though, for its conservative play-calling at times, and deservedly so. This has caused U-M’s drives to frequently stall, most notably in the red zone (the Maize and Blue have scored touchdowns on just 60 percent of their red zone trips, which is 73rd in college football). First-year offensive line coach Ed Warinner has been a godsend to a front five that has been average (at best) during the Harbaugh era, but the position as a whole has still struggled to consistently create running lanes, which is another notable weakness on offense.

JF: Michigan will win if...

AF: It comes out motivated, hungry and ready to play. This may seem like a simple and even a bit of a dull answer, but this team showed it has the ability to be one of the best in college football all season long. Assuming Patterson takes care of the football (which he has done at a high level) and the defense bounces back from the OSU debacle, Michigan should win.

JF: Finally, your prediction and why

AF: After all the Wolverines’ season goals came crashing down at Ohio State on Nov. 24, the team’s current psyche is a huge question mark. Combine that with the fact that three of the team’s most important players are sitting out — including two captains in Higdon and Bush — and there are major concerns about the emotional state of the players heading into this game. Perhaps these issues will cause the rest of the group to bond together and take out their frustrations on the Gators, capping off what would be a very solid 11-2 season. On the flip side, though, the team may also suffer a hangover from the OSU loss, and come out uninterested and deterred after three of the squad’s most important players announced they’re not interested in participating. The latter scenario almost seems more likely at this point. Florida 24, Michigan 17