GAINESVILLE, Fla.-- The regular season is over and the bowl game picture is a bit clearer this Sunday, well not clear, but less hazy.
There were a few results that helped Florida's chances at a New Year's Six bowl game.
Earlier on Saturday , No. 5 Alabama lost to No. 15 Auburn and No. 12 Wisconsin beat No. 8 Minnesota. The Gators then did what they needed to do by beating Florida State convincingly. These results theoretically helped the Gators' case for a NY6 bowl, but of course that depends on the College Football Playoff committee.
"Hopefully we did enough to get a New Year’s Six Bowl, maybe even more," Gators head coach Dan Mullen said after UF's 40-17 win over FSU "Baylor beat a 6-win team last week and jumped up five spots. We did the same thing (against FSU), pretty handily, so we’ll see how that is."
"I think we’ve played as well as we could have," added wide receiver Josh Hammond. "I think we’ve executed, and we lost two games, but the other 10 that we’ve won really says a lot about our football team."
We broke down the scenarios and rules before in regards to the Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl previously but here is a refresher:
- Sugar Bowl will take the highest-ranked SEC team
- Orange Bowl will take the highest ranked team between Notre Dame, Big Ten and the SEC not in the playoffs or contractually obligated to another bowl (for instance the highest ranked Big Ten team not in the playoffs will need to go to the Rose Bowl) and that team with face the highest ranked ACC team not in the playoffs.
- Cotton Bowl will then take the Group of Five champion and pit it against the highest-ranked team left after all the other priority bowls are taking care of.
So what needs to happen? What is the committee considering when they are making the rankings this week?
Will Florida move up ahead of Alabama?
If you look at things objectively, Florida should be above Alabama in the new poll released on Tuesday. Why? The Gators simply have better wins than the Crimson Tide and had the tougher regular season schedule.
Who is Alabama's best win? A seven-win Texas A&M team, while the Gators' best win was the team 'Bama just lost to - a top-20 team.
So if Florida is above Nick Saban's side then Florida would be the third-ranked SEC team. If both Georgia and LSU are in the playoffs, UF will head to the Sugar Bowl, if LSU is the only SEC team in the playoffs then the Gators may head to South Florida to play in the Orange Bowl.
Big Ten team could play spoiler
If Florida slides to the Orange Bowl then they will also need to rank higher than a Big Ten team that is not going to the playoffs or a Rose Bowl.
With Minnesota's loss this week to Wisconsin, we can assume the Golden Gophers will or should drop behind Florida, again like Alabama, the Gators have a stronger strength of schedule.
At this time, Ohio State would head to the playoffs and Penn State would take the Rose Bowl spot, if the Nittany Lions are still the second highest ranked Big Ten team. Thus leaving Wisconsin and Florida to battle for a Orange Bowl spot - if again Minnesota drops down below Florida.
I expect the Badgers, who are currently ranked No. 12, one spot behind the Gators, to move up the rankings, since they now would have three good wins against top ranked teams. But Wisconsin still needs to play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. If the Badgers lost to the Buckeyes, they would have three losses, including a bad loss to Illinois. The committee would have to decide if a three-loss team should be above a two-loss Florida.
Gators should hope for a blow out win by Ohio State over Wisconsin to help their cause. Florida does not want to be behind three Big Ten teams in the rankings. If they are, they will drop out of the Orange Bowl.
Big Ten scenario recap:
-Top ranked team is Ohio State and is expected to head to the playoffs.
- The second highest-ranked team in the conference will then head to the Rose Bowl (if OSU heads to the playoff).
- Third-ranked team will have to fight with Notre Dame and the SEC for the Orange Bowl or hope to be the highest-rank team remaining and head to the Cotton Bowl.
The Pac 12 and Big 12 problem
All the other ranked teams not in the playoffs and not in the above bowls are fighting to land the final spot in Cotton Bowl.
So if you take out the SEC and Big Ten teams mentioned above, No. 6 Utah, No. 7 Oklahoma, No. 9 Baylor and No. 14 Oregon are all players.
In order to help us decipher this bowl we need to take a look at the conference championships:
Here are your scenarios:
1. Oklahoma wins the Big 12 but still does not slot into the playoffs, which means it would go to the Sugar Bowl and Baylor would go to the Cotton Bowl.
2. Baylor beats Oklahoma which would send the Big 12 champions to the Sugar Bowl, and the Gators will have to hope the Sooners drop behind them in the rankings. Oklahoma lost to Kansas State, and in this scenario would have lost to a top ten team. However, Oklahoma has two quality wins against Baylor earlier in the season and a win over Oklahoma State. Those two wins could keep the Sooners ahead of the Gators.
3. Oregon beats Utah which means the Ducks would head to the Rose Bowl and the Utes would go to the Cotton Bowl.
4. The Big Ten can also factor in here if Minnesota does not drop as far as expected, if Florida doesn't move ahead of Alabama, and if Wisconsin is ahead of Florida.
The good news for Florida is that on Sunday's newly released AP Poll, the Gators are sitting in a good position to either head to the Sugar or Orange Bowl.
In the new AP rankings Florida ranks No. 7.
Other notable rankings include:
LSU No. 1
Georgia No. 4
Alabama No. 9
Wisconsin No. 10
Auburn No. 11
Penn State No. 12
Minnesota No. 15
Even if Georgia does not make the playoffs after the conference championship games and Oklahoma or Baylor or Utah leaps frog them into the top four, the Bulldogs would head to the Sugar Bowl and the Gators would head to the Orange Bowl in that scenario.
This is if the AP Poll is similar to the CFP poll.
The big question, however, will the committee agree?
What the Gators seniors can agree on, is that an opportunity to end their career at a New Year's Six Bowl would mean a lot to the group.
"I've went to the Outback Bowl, and then going to no bowl, and then I've had the experience of playing in a New Year's Six Bowl," said Hammond. "Once you get that experience you kind of don't want anything less, so I think it'd be hard to kind of not want anything else, and I think guys will continue to prepare and play hard to try to put themselves in a situation to get a New Year's Six Bowl every year, possible playoff."
“We’ve put all our chips in the basket," added defensive lineman Jon Greenard. "We did everything that we could do.No other team, injury big caught us at the wrong time. They know what we can do when we're healthy. When we’re healthy we can play against anybody in this country. I like us against everyone. And I’m standing on that.”
