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Published Nov 26, 2017
On the Mark: Three Thoughts on the Dan Mullen hire
Mark Wheeler  •  1standTenFlorida
Publisher

On Sunday evening Florida made their much anticipated new head coaching hire when they tabbed former Gators offensive coordinator, and current Mississippi State head man, Dan Mullen to take over the program.

Here are three thoughts on the hire:

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MULLEN IS THE BEST HIRE

I will concede that there are a handful of coaching hires that would have made more of a 'splash' - but for overall fit, and what is available, I don't believe Florida could have done better in this round of coaching hires than tabbing Dan Mullen to be the next coach of the Florida Gators.

To be clear, none of this is me attempting to make the best of the situation.

I wrote much of my reasoning in three prior updates:

* Florida Coaching Hotboard 2.0

* Is Kelly the best fit at Florida

* Breaking down the head coaching candidates

Here's how I view the three most talked about candidates:

Dan Mullen: He is a top college coach - currently seen just below that top tier which consists of Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and Dabo Swinney - who has proven himself to be one of the top offensive minds in the Southeast - while playing week in and week out in the toughest division in college football.

This hire may not carry the immediate 'wow' factor of a Kelly or a Frost, but he is a proven program builder who has done more with less than anyone else in college football over the last 8-9 years. When he is able to once again utilize Florida type of talent, I have no doubt that the Gators will once again be a perennial top 10 type of program.

Is there a downside?

Of course.

While he may be the safest choice, of the three most talked about candidates, he probably has the lowest ceiling.

I have no doubt that he will win 10 games a year on average. However, will he consistently have Florida in the mix for a National Championship?

I don't believe so.

That doesn't however mean that lightening can't strike. That everything can't go right and the Gators won't win 1-2 under his guidance.

Chip Kelly: The benefit of hiring Kelly would have come in the form of instant gratification. This is the one name out there that would instantly excite each and every fan-base who has a head coach opening this cycle.

While his college win/loss record and offensive prowess speak for themselves - beneath those numbers are some legitimate concerns if he were to have signed on with a school in the southeast.

I brought it up in the Hotboard (linked above) - as the motto goes - It just means more.

In the southeast a head football coach is basically the face of the university. Wherever you go, you are in the spotlight.

I don't think Kelly has the personality or makeup to fit the type of hysteria surrounding football in the southeast. He doesn't want to be the face of the city. He doesn't like recruiting. He doesn't want to hobnob with the 'peasants' who fill these southern stadiums.

To me, this would have attempting to fit a square peg into a round hole type of hire.

As we saw with Jim McElwain, regardless of coaching acumen, that doesn't always work.

Kelly himself knew it - which is why he took less money from UCLA than he could have gotten from Florida - so it's too bad to many of the Gator Nation don't get it and take it as a slight to the Florida football program when really it was more about overall fit than it was about program prestige.

Scott Frost: I can understand why some fans want him, he looks and acts the part, has the Nation's No. 1 offense and is located in-state. However, recent history tells us that you have to be concerned when a Group of 5 hotshot coach (with an extremely limited head coaching resume in this instance) takes a Power 5 head coaching job.

You can go back to Dan Hawkins blowing up at Boise State (53-11) only to fall flat on his face at Colorado (19-39) to more recent examples such as Butch Jones at Central Michigan and Cincinnati (50-27) and Dave Doeren at Northern Illinois (23-4) having their way with Group of 5 schools, but then struggling at Tennessee (34-27) and N.C. State (33-30).

The only recent top tier coach to go from a leading a Group of 5 program to being ultra sucessful at a Power 5 program is Urban Meyer.

There are many more failures than sucess stories.

Now, does that mean Frost would crash and burn?

Of course not, but he is the biggest gamble of the top candidates - and with the Gators recent history (two losing seasons in the last five years), they can't afford a huge failure with this hire.

MULLEN OVER PERFORMED AT MISSISSIPPI STATE

Too many out there are looking at Mullen's 69-46 overall record (.600) and not putting it into proper prospective. Mississippi State is arguably the 13th or 14th best program in the SEC. Playing in the West, facing Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M each and every season is a Murderer's Row few programs of their means have to take on - much less come out unscathed.

Of Mullen's 46 career losses, 28 have come to ranked teams.

What really strikes me as odd is that those who hold Mullen's SEC record against him, forgive that fact that James Franklin had an overall losing record in the SEC. He had it because he was at Vanderbilt - arguably the 13th or 14th best program in the SEC.

Franklin, based on what he has done at Penn State - a job Mullen turned down - is considered one of the top up and coming coaches, while there are some who doubt Mullen.

Without question Mullen has outperformed what would normally be expected of a Bulldogs' head coach.

MULLEN AT MSU
CATEGORYUNDER MULLENTHE REST OF THE TIME

Years

9

104

Losing Seasons

2

50

9 or more wins

3 (could be 4 with bowl win)

5

Bowl Games

8

13

Winning Percentage

.600

.464

HE WILL NEED TO SURROUND HIMSELF WITH TOP SHELF RECRUITERS

The biggest knock on Mullen is that he has never been seen as an elite recruiter. Unlike some coaches who are known more for being ace recruiters, Mullen on the other hand has always earned his way, and gotten promoted, based on his ability to coach more so than his ability to recruit.

Therefore he will need to surround himself with a staff of top recruiters - including a couple of Florida specific aces (Ja'Juan Seider, Eddie Gran, Billy Gonzales types come to mind) in order to fully take advantage of the fertile Sunshine State recruiting grounds.

Personality wise, he isn't going to woo you like an Urban Meyer.

Then again, look at Nick Saban. Do you think prospects actually like him?

Come on.

They like that he wins and sends players to the league.

Mullen can say that he has coached Alex Smith (a No. 1 overall NFL Draft choice), Tim Tebow, Cam Newton (a No.1 overall NFL Draft choice) and Dak Prescott (the reigning NFL Rookie of the Year).

He won't have an issue recruiting quarterbacks at Florida, and where quarterbacks go, other top skill position prospects soon follow.

With the right staff, Florida will once again become a fixture in the team recruiting ranking top five.


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