On the Mark: McElwain has shown to be more like Muschamp than Meyer

THIS ARTICLE ORIGINALLY RAN ON INSIDE THE GATORS ON OCTOBER 9

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* Forde: According to sources, McElwain job in jeopardy

* Atlanta out of reach, McElwain reaches end of the line

* Uncensored Sound Off: Harsh reaction to latest loss

* Five Fast Thoughts: Feels like the end of the McElwain era

* Instant Analysis: Georgia runs wild, thumps Florida 42-7

* ALLEY: Florida vs. Georgia game thread

* 30 DAY TRIAL OFFER

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Just 32 games into Jim McElwain's tenure as the Florida head football coach it is already reality check time for the Gator Nation.

It may not be something that the casual Florida fan - you know the ones, they show up more for the tailgate party than actually caring about the outcome of the game - wants to admit, but to this point in their time in Gainesville, McElwain's record and list of accomplishments more closely resembles that of Will Muschamp than Urban Meyer.

When it comes to a pecking order of Florida head football coaches in the modern era, the list is headlined by Steve Spurrier, with everyone else vying for second place.

Actually, because of who he is, his coaching style and what he meant to the program as both a player and a coach, if there was a Mount Rushmore of Florida head football coaches, Steven Orr Spurrier would likely occupy three of the four heads – one as the head coach, one as the play-caller and one as the man antagonizing rivals - with Meyer claiming the remaining spot.

Spurrier had it all. He was home grown in that he played for Florida, winning a Heisman Trophy along the way, and then returned home to lead the Gators to their very first taste of national prominence. Doing so in his own unique style – beating the life out of the rest of the SEC with his exciting to watch, Fun & Gun offense while rubbing their collective noses in it every chance he got.

There was no lead too large to convince him to take his foot off the gas pedal, no remark aimed at an opponent too snide for him to hold back and not make.

Spurrier is without question not only the winningest coach in Florida football history, but maybe - perhaps more importantly - the most beloved.

Therefore, trying to replicate who he was, what he was able to accomplish, or his standing with the fanbase is a futile endeavor.

It simply isn't going to happen.

With that being the case, everyone else who holds the job is likely better off in being compared to Meyer – who was no slouch himself, winning two National Championships while at Florida.

So, at the halfway point of his third year leading the Florida football program, where exactly does McElwain stand?

Who does he compare most favorably - or in this instance, unfavorably - to?

Looking at his overall record, how he his teams have performed in the Swamp, in the SEC, against rivals and – yes it is that important – offensively – it is safe to say McElwain ranks ahead of Charlie Pell, Galen Hall and Ron Zook.

That leaves Meyer and Muschamp.

Unfortunately for McElwain, at this point his career path more closely resembles Muschamp than it does Meyer.

There is no question that in every meaningful stat, McElwain falls short of reaching Meyer like status.

Honestly, to this point, other than winning the two East title on the back of Muschamp recruited defensive players, McElwain actually trails Muschamp in most areas.

McElwain and his defenders are quick to point out that he has won the SEC East in each of his first two seasons, as though that alone is considered to be a crowning achievement for a Florida head coach.

And while we are at it, lets be honest about those two East titles, they were won in a division mostly derided as the worst among those in the Power 5 Conferences.

Also, somehow what has gotten lost in the equation is that the Gators lost four games in each of those first two seasons.

Not only do the losses sting, but the rankings are just as hard to look at without a state of depression beginning to set in.

While the Meyer led Gators were ranked in the AP top 10 in 25 of his first 32 game weeks, under McElwain Florida has spent more time unranked (five weeks) than they have in the top 10 (four weeks).

Here midway through his third season McElwain has essentially built a top 20-30 type of program, with no clear path to the top 10 anytime soon.

Or, basically, it is in the same place as Muschamp left it.

Be honest, how many people reading this actually feel like Florida puts a better product on the field today than they did in Muschamp's final season?

That is what I thought.

It wasn't supposed to be this way though.

After the failed Muschamp era mercifully came to an end, then Florida Athletics Director Jeremy Foley vowed to return excitement back to Florida football with the hire of an offensive minded coach.

You know to whom I am referring.

The one who assured the Gator Nation during his introductory press conference that he could win with his dog Claribelle at quarterback.

Well, give that dog a bone, a playbook and a jersey.

It is past time she suited up.

The thought back then, based on his time at Alabama, was that McElwain was some sort of an offensive mastermind.

Ha!

More like if you want to watch a competent offense, never mind tuning in to watch the Florida Gators.

It has gotten so bad that CBS Analyst Gary Danielson was openly mocking Florida's offense during the national broadcast of the Tennessee game.

Too bad most of the Gator Nation couldn't find humor in the stats and quips he was throwing out.

It would be laughable if it wasn't so sad, but on average Florida is actually worse off offensively under the offensive minded McElwain than they were under the defensive minded Muschamp.

Total Offense ranking under Muschamp: 2011/#105, 2012/#103, 2013/#113, 2014/#93

Total Offense ranking under McElwain: 2015/#111, 2016/#116, 2017/#102

On Saturday, for the 14th time in 32 games (44%) Florida was held to under three touchdowns in the McElwain era.

You can talk about suspensions and injuries being the cause all you want, but with the same players who are unavailable now, Florida only ranked #112 in offense last year.

Also, do you think a Spurrier or Meyer coached team, with those same players who took the field Saturday, would have been held to 16 points in a Homecoming game against a team like LSU?

Exactly.

Neither do I.

When it comes to offense, or lack of it, McElwain has actually out Muschamp'ed, Will Muschamp.

If that isn't bad enough, looking at the career arcs of McElwain and Muschamp with Florida, they are eerily similar.

Scarier still though is that in his third season Muschamp was sitting at 4-1 before a monumental slide began - which saw him finish 4-8.

That in turn was basically the beginning of the end.

Here in 2017 McElwain started the season 3-1, and is now facing what may very well be a three game losing streak if something doesn't change drastically.

That in turn could very well signal the beginning of the end for the current regime.

However, that is all in the here and now.

What is becoming increasingly clear is that going forward, McElwain - much as Muschamp did - is going to have a problem selling a vision to offensive skill players.

That is a problem which helped sink Muschamp's ship.

Forget records, rankings or even offensive production, the reality is the most important issue at hand is that now in his third season of offensive malaise, much like Muschamp, McElwain can no longer talk the talk, he has to begin to walk the walk.

Because otherwise – for the third straight season – prospects see a lack of production.

In the end, that is what hampered Muschamp and a pretty damn good recruiting staff. They lost out on players such as Dalvin Cook, Adoree Jackson (as an athlete), Travis Randolph, etc... because they simply didn't believe that Florida was ever going to turn it around offensively.

Here in the present, Florida could be facing that very same scenario soon enough.

In your first couple of seasons you can sell a prospect on a vision you have for the team and the promise that they can help fulfill it.

Three abysmal offensive years later, young men want - and need - to see results more than hear empty words.

In our weekly Recruit Reaction the feedback includes increased trepidation among offensive skill position players.

If Florida hasn't been able to climb out of the 100s in offensive production here in their third season, then when will they?

The present coaching staff sold the same bill of goods to Feleipe Franks, Jordan Scarlett, Freddie Swain, Tyrie Cleveland, Malik Davis, Malik Zaire, etc... The list goes on and on.

Something has to be done. There hasn't been a commitment since the start of the season and some of those who are currently committed are getting a bit antsy.

On Sunday, in gathering quotes for our Recruit Reaction piece, a current commit admitted that though he hasn't said it publicly, Florida's struggles on offense are concerning to him.

Three years in, blaming a lack of offensive production on a lack of players or playmakers starts to ring hollow.

If you are Jacob Copeland, who despite his commitment to Florida has already visited Alabama twice this season and will take visits this fall, when it comes to the Gators staff, do you trust what you hear or what you see?

Though UF actually averages 10 more yards per game passing then the Tide this year, their offense looks more diversified and exciting.

Then you add in the fact that you can bet Alabama is selling him on the fact that they have receivers like Julio Jones and Amari Cooper earning millions in the NFL.

Who does Florida counter with? When is the last time Florida put a meaningful skill position player in the NFL? You have to go all the way back to Percy Harvin.

Plus, Which team are you more likely to win a national championship with? Which coaching staff is still likely to be there in three or four years?

Those are the type of things prospects look at and the type of questions they ask themselves.

Unfortunately for Florida as the new wears off and reality sets in, the Gators don't stack up favorably to several other elite teams that they consistently recruit against in the Southeast.

That is the fault of but one person.

Ja'Marr Chase, who has already visited LSU twice since his commitment to Florida, was in the Swamp on Saturday. If you were him, making a decision based on your football playing future, honestly, while neither team was a world beater, which offense looked more interesting and featured their wide outs more?

And that brings us to Matt Corral, who is committed to Florida in part because of his relationship with offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier.

Well, if things don't change dramatically over the last half of the season, you have to believe Nussmeier is in his last year in Gainesville.

If it happens, it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Going back to his last season at Michigan's offensive coordinator, he has been at the head of a bottom 30 offense for four straight years now.

Do you hold on to Nussmeier, though he has proven for four straight years that he is over-matched as an offensive coordinator in order to help keep Corral?

Do you jettison Nussmeier and take your chances?

Or, there's the third possibility, which schools do more and more, don't announce anything with Nussmeier until after the Letters of Intent are signed and sent in.

Lets not pretend like it hasn't happened before. With Florida alone there was Greg Mattison, Terrell Williams and Torian Gray.

Other programs are doing it with increased frequency as well.

If that sounds like a underhanded, a dumpster fire way of doing business, welcome to big-time college football.

At that point, the signees are locked in and Florida could be without the offensive albatross known as Nussmeier.

It may be what is necessary to keep this class intact while getting rid of some of the dead weight and help calm the Florida faithful.

One thing is for sure, something has to change the current projection of Florida football or those top 10 AP Poll days are going to continue to be a blurry memory buried in the past rather than a realistic goal for the near future.

A question was posed in the Alley - When is the last time you felt good about Florida football?

My answer, about two coaches ago.

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