USA Today handicapper Danny Sheridan was recently in Gainesville to speak to the Fightin’ Gator Touchdown Club.
After a colorful hour-long talk to the club, Inside the Gators got some one-on-one time with the expert handicapper to talk about what he sees in-store for Florida in 2017, as well as one of his most memorable picks:
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On a Las Vegas over/under line of 8.5 wins for the Gators in the regular season:
“I think they’ll be closer to eight wins. Quarterback is the one thing missing. They’re loaded at running back, loaded at wide receiver.“
On Michigan being a four-point favorite (at the time), a game he won’t pick professionally:
“It’s lined because Michigan has better players on paper. Michigan has a superior quarterback to anything Florida has. Wilton Speight is a really good quarterback. He should have beaten Ohio State at Ohio State. He’s battle tested. And they’ve just got more depth and really good athletes.”
“Either Florida will win the game outright, or lose by double digits.”
On the impact of Antonio Callaway’s absence, which Sheridan opines made a 1.5-point difference in the line:
“Callaway would force them into double coverage. Florida has good receivers, real good receivers by SEC standards. Good tight ends. The offensive line should really be improved. It would be nice to have someone double covered like Callaway to leave open a tight end or one of the wide receivers.”
On one of his most memorable picks involving Florida:
“Two years ago, Vanderbilt had lost 34-0 to Houston the week before. They’re playing Florida at homecoming. Florida dusted them up there the year before. Florida players are thinking ‘It’s homecoming and we beat the hell out of this team.’
“The line was 21 points. Everybody bet on Florida. I loved Vanderbilt. The final score is 9-7. Did I ever dream it would be that close? No, but that’s not what I’m paid to. I’m paid to pick against the spread.”
“I pulled for Florida probably late in the third quarter because I realized Vanderbilt is going to cover 21 points.”
On potential trap games for Florida:
“The most you can get up – every coach agrees with me except for Coach Spurrier – four games a year in the regular season. The reality is, eight games you’re going to play sloppy. In four games, Florida is going to be playing sky high against Michigan, against LSU, against Florida State and against Georgia. The rest of the eight games, the players are not going to give 100 percent. They’re going to be up there, but not 100 percent.”
“If Kentucky looks like a so-so team, and Florida is coming off a win over Tennessee – I think they’ll cream Tennessee – they’re going to have nothing left for Kentucky. Enough to win the game, maybe, but they should not beat the spread if Kentucky is perceived to be the same old Kentucky the week before the game.”
“Florida gets a two-week break for Georgia. Assuming they beat Georgia, there’s no way they’re getting up for Missouri. Missouri got pasted by them (last year). If it lines up as a perfect-storm game, like how Vanderbilt lost 34-0 to Houston the week before (playing Florida in 2015), I’m all over Missouri.”
On bringing LSU to The Swamp for homecoming:
“As a handicapper, I would make LSU the favorite. How many times in my lifetime has Florida been an underdog at home? Ok, a couple times against Florida State, but not homecoming.
“This is different. LSU has a better team. If LSU plays sloppy the week before, they’re just coming down here and put a whipping on (Florida). This may not happen, but this is the way I’m thinking now. I would make LSU a three-point favorite. Going back to Charley Pell, I don’t ever remember Florida being an underdog for homecoming.”
On why he likes the Gators to win against Georgia:
“They’ll beat Georgia every year as long as McElwain is there. The last couple years, there’s no way that Florida’s supposed to win two in a row from Georgia based on talent. And this year, the Bulldogs have got that whole defense back and a much better quarterback. They’ve got the best running back duo in the country.
“How the hell is Florida going to beat them? They’ll beat them because they’ll be ready to play and they’ll out-coach them. I take Florida every year.”
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