Thamel Predicts Kelly to UCLA, Frost to Florida

Back when Chip Kelly coached as an assistant at New Hampshire, they’d often play Atlantic 10 conference rival Northeastern in late September or early October in Boston. Kelly was known to walk over to Fenway Park to catch the final few innings of a Red Sox playoff game after his own game. Kelly knew a few of the security guards, and he’d watch the game from a standing-room area, blending seamlessly into the crowd.

These days, it’s a little more difficult for Kelly to blend in, as his rise from quirky coordinator at a remote school to one of the most respected offensive minds in football has been one of the most remarkable ascents in modern football. Now his decision on whether to take the job at either Florida or UCLA, both of which he’s spoken to this week and have expressed significant interest, looms over the sport.

This is a column dedicated to predictions of what will happen during what promises to be a furious post-Thanksgiving flurry of firings and hirings across college football. The most important market indicator is Kelly’s upcoming choice between UCLA and Florida, as that will dictate the rest of the hirings across the landscape.

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* ITG Blog: Up to the minute updates on Kelly

* 30 DAY FREE TRIAL OFFER (PROMO CODE Gators30)

* Landry Q&A breakdown on the candidates I

* Landry Q&A breakdown on the candidates II

* Coaching Candidates Hotboard 2.0

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The prediction here for Kelly is that he ends up going to coach at UCLA. Despite Kelly’s rise to stardom, there’s still part of this that’s he uncomfortable. There’s still a part of Kelly’s persona who relishes being able to catch a game at Fenway without anyone noticing him.

Kelly’s choice between UCLA and Florida is a fascinating one. From a pure football perspective, Florida is a much better job. At Florida, there’s tradition, a recent history of success and a recruiting base that would allow his spread-tempo offense to flourish. But Kelly’s guiding principle through all this has been fit and people. And as a life fit, it’s likely Kelly would be more comfortable being a star in the constellation of Los Angeles as opposed to being the most famous person in a small SEC town.

There’s also familiarity, as Kelly dominated the Pac-12 while head coach at Oregon – 46-7 in his four years as head coach between 2009 and 2012.

Florida, despite the subpar facilities, is one of the country’s top 10 jobs. UCLA is arguably one of the top 25, as it would be considered behind USC, Washington, Stanford and Oregon in the Pac-12 pecking order. But after Kelly’s run at Oregon, struggles in the NFL with Philadelphia and his flop in San Francisco, his perspective is going to go much beyond where he can accumulate the most national titles. Money won’t be a driving factor, as Kelly has said all along that fit and happiness will be.

So the prediction here is UCLA, and the following predictions will all fall in line with that. UCLA has its flaws, as it’s unknown whether there’s enough support and infrastructure there to compete at the highest levels. But with sparkling new facilities, a strong local talent base and the Rose Bowl as a home venue, it would be fascinating to watch Kelly try.

We’ll leave this caveat that Kelly has been nothing if not unpredictable in his career. (Who knows? He could pass on both). But the longer this decision goes, the more clear it appears that Kelly will be heading West.

So with Kelly predicted to go to UCLA, what else happens? (Feel free to call up this story in two weeks and laugh.)

Names: Scott Frost, Dan Mullen, Matt Campbell

Prediction: Scott Frost. This one seems pretty obvious. Florida needs offense. Frost has dominated the competition, and Florida gives him a much better platform than Nebraska to win a title.

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Click HERE to read all of Thamel's predictions as to what coaches end up where.

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