On the Mark: Offensive Line Lacks Talent

Despite an ongoing, and what now looks like over-the-top, public relations campaign by Jim McElwain to convince the Gator Nation – and perhaps himself – otherwise, there was one major revelation during Saturday's lopsided 33-17 loss to Michigan. That being that despite the preseason hoopla, Florida's offensive line not only isn't the best unit on the team, it is still the hot mess that it has been for several seasons now.

After replacing Mike Summers with Brad Davis this past off-season, perhaps Florida's offensive line is more technically sound or playing with more fire, passion and intensity. That can't be proved or disproved one way or the other after one game.

What is matter-of-fact though is that the talent level remains below par for a Florida Gators offensive line.

Davis may or may not be a superstar coach in the making. We still don't know, but what is clear is that from a talent standpoint, he is being forced into taking a knife to a gun fight when you compare the current talent level along the line to what Florida has featured on their best teams of the recent past.

I am sure that this is where a select few of you are ready to jump off the train.

The argument for many of you in that group is that the Florida coaching staff is a better evaluator of talent than is Rivals.

My response to that is - prove it.

I mean that sincerely.

I will provide stats below showing that Rivals rankings are relevant when it comes to predicting future success of prospects coming out of high school.

If you have a valid argument that either stars and/or Rivals recruiting rankings don't matter or aren't as accurate as Florida's staff evaluations - I am all ears and eyes.

I would legitimately like for anyone to provide an argument for that point of view.

My take being, that yes, there are those who are highly rated who can be busts and there are those who are lowly rated who can surprise and become damn good players.

That is without question possible.

However, every single statistic out there that I have seen proves that on average the higher rated a prospect is coming out of high school the more likely he is to find success in college and beyond.

For those who need proof of that - I offer into evidence this statistic.

While I could go back further, in the two year McElwain era at Florida there have been 10 offensive linemen named to the Coaches post-season All SEC first-team.

The 10 players in the two combined years consisted of:

Five-Stars: 3
Four-Stars: 4
Three-Stars: 3

Right now someone who doesn't completely understand math is probably thinking, 'Well there are as many three-stars as there are five-stars.'

That is correct. However, you have to keep in mind that there are many times more three-star rated linemen compared to five-star rated linemen.

Take 2013 for example (since we used that cycle below in a table). That year there were two five-star offensive linemen on Rivals compared to 198 who were rated as three-stars.

So there is roughly one five-star offensive lineman for every 100 three-star offensive lineman.

The conclusion that can be drawn is that the best offensive linemen in the SEC were highly rated. Right here, 70-percent of first-team honorees these last two years were four or five stars coming out of high school.

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To look at this in a more Gators' specific fashion.

There are 11 former Florida offensive linemen who are on NFL opening week rosters right now.

Here is that breakdown:

Five-Stars: 1 (Florida has signed four five-star offensive linemen in the Rivals era. One is still in school, meaning 1-of-4 – 25% - five-stars are on an NFL roster)

Four-Stars: 7 (Florida has signed 20 four-star offensive linemen in the Rivals era. Three are still in school, meaning 7/17 – 41.1% - four-stars are on an NFL roster)

Three-Stars: 3 (Florida has signed 32 three-star offensive linemen in the Rivals era. 10 are still in school, meaning 3/22 - 13.6% - three-stars are on an NFL roster)

So yes, without question, a four and a five star is more likely to find a greater level of college success and move on to the NFL than is a two or three star prospect.

Let's see if 'stars' along the offensive line equates to more success on the football field.

In the last decade (2007-2016) the three most successful Florida football seasons were 2008, 2009 and 2012.

We compare those offensive line's to this year's in the table below:

I know, I know, I know.

This is the argument: Forget the statistics provided above, Rivals rankings are wrong when it comes to this current Florida group. They were all simply overlooked, not only by Rivals, but for the most part, other top tier colleges as well.

Individually and as a group, they are much better than their rankings.

Again, I would ask, based on what?

As far as accolades are concerned, Ivey - you know, the former five-star - was named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week twice last year and was a Second-Team All SEC selection last season, but the rest were simply average to good at best - depending on the opponent - for most of the year.

There is nothing wrong with being an average player against the likes of UMASS, Kentucky or Vanderbilt. That is because for the most part, those teams feature average defensive line talent.

What happened though when those average players faced defensive lines such as Georgia, Florida State, LSU and Alabama? For the most part they were overmatched.

That happened once again on Saturday against Michigan. So yes, they may rebound and look great against Northern Colorado this weekend, but then again, they should.

So how did Florida get to this point?

From having offensive lines stocked with talent that sent players to the NFL, to one that gives up six sacks and gains but 11 yards rushing against Michigan?

Here is how the line was built from year to year along with some of the top players the Gators missed on.

That brings us to where Florida is today along the line.

Regardless of who the coach is, who has faith that the group below is going to perform at a high level against the likes of LSU, Georgia and Florida State?

Unless you want to throw two true freshmen (one of which is currently suspended) into the fire, Florida basically has one offensive lineman right now who was a four or five-star prospect coming out of high school.

If Florida truly wants to compete against the best of the best, actually be competitive by moving the ball offensively to avoid being blown out, it all starts up front.

Florida began to upgrade the talent in the 2017 cycle by signing four-stars Kadeem Telfort and T.J. Moore.

They are continuing this cycle with a commitment from four-star Curtis Dunlap and being very much in the picture for four-stars Richard Gouraige, William Barnes and Nick Petit-Frere.

Now, once Florida gets some of these top tier kids in, they will be able to much better matchup with the elite teams

Until then?

For Florida to get back to being Florida again from an offensive stand point, the staff may need to change their philosophy - spread teams out more, try to get their speed on the corners - for now to compensate for a lack of talent upfront.

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