Stock Report: Examining trends from the first half of the season
With six games in the books and five games remaining, Florida's bye week comes close to dividing the Gators' 2017 season in half. UF is 3-3 overall and 3-2 in the SEC after dropping back-to-back home contests to LSU and Texas A&M.
Inside the Gators continues our midseason review with a Stock Report of the trends so far.
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* Take Two: Can Florida's McElwain already be on the hot seat?
* Film Room: An in-depth look at Franks
* Report: McElwain looking to move on
* Recruit Reaction: We'll see what they do when Corral gets there
* Alley: Weekend Visitor Observations
* Pick One: Major change must be made
* McElwain still believes in struggling Gators
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Head coach Jim McElwain (↓): The third-year coach is far from “fighting for his job” status, but hot seat chatter is starting to form in the national media. After Florida’s back-to-back home losses, fans are becoming more vocal about their frustrations with the product on the field and more are calling for a coaching change in Gainesville. A lot would have to go wrong in the coming weeks for McElwain’s job to be in any real danger, but the negative media chatter certainly affects his stock.
The fact that McElwain coached the Gators to two SEC Championship Games in his first two seasons is likely enough to get him to Year 4 even with a disappointing finish. In the coming months, all eyes will be on McElwain to see how he addresses Florida’s lack of offensive production, an issue that led to his hiring but has continued to plague the Gators much of the last three seasons. He could help his stock significantly by beating either Georgia or Florida State.
The fate of the nine suspended players (↓): It has been more than two months since Florida announced in a press releases that seven players, including junior wide receiver Antonio Callaway, were suspended for the Michigan game. At the time, the fact that the suspensions could last beyond the Michigan game – absent from the announcement but revealed in a press conference on the Monday after the announcement – seemed like a minor detail. Since the initial announcement, two more players were suspended and more details about the matter have come out.
While the suspensions were once tied to misuse of academic funds, the sworn complaints filed by local police showed that the players were making charges with stolen credit card information. All nine have remained suspended and the matter is considered out of the hands of the coaching staff and the athletic department. Considering that the suspensions extend to all team activities, it is looking less and less likely that any of the nine players will suit up for Florida this season having missed two months of practice and counting.
Defending the SEC East (↓): Since Florida won the division in 2015, players have developed a chip on their shoulder regarding media recognition and respect. The past two summers, SEC media members have picked Tennessee and Georgia to win the division. In response, Gators players frequently brought up being disrespected.
Florida’s mission this season was to get back to Atlanta. The loss to Texas A&M was UF’s second in conference play and ended the team’s control of its own destiny. There are three conference games, but Florida would have to beat Georgia and then hope for another team to hand the Bulldogs a second loss. It’s possible, but stock is way down on Florida’s chances of defending its SEC East crown.
The quarterback room (↓): When Notre Dame graduate transfer Malik Zaire arrived in June, Florida looked strong at the quarterback position in terms of numbers. Zaire joined a room which included incumbent starter Luke Del Rio, redshirt freshmen Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask as well as true freshman Jake Allen. Five scholarship quarterbacks looked like a huge step up from the situation McElwain inherited in December 2014.
Five quickly became four when Trask needed foot surgery this summer. The Gators are now at three available scholarship quarterbacks after Del Rio’s broken collarbone. Of those three, there’s not a clear best option for Florida. Franks, who has been in the system the longest, still looks underdeveloped and struggles with reads and progressions. Zaire is an erratic passer in practice and did not impress against Michigan. Allen was not in the competition for the starting job in camp. The year has changed, but the quarterback situation feels the same as last season.
Sophomore wide receiver Tyrie Cleveland (↑): One of the biggest bright spots on offense, Cleveland has boosted his stock and is rightfully getting noticed as a play-making wide receiver. Cleveland’s career got off to a rough start with a BB gun incident and a hamstring injury, but the former four-star recruit flashed here and there as a freshman, which led to high expectations for his sophomore season.
Cleveland’s spotlight got brighter after the suspension of Callaway as he became the team’s new go-to wide receiver. He has proven that he can still get open against opponents’ top defensive backs without the help of another dynamic wideout lining up on the other side. If not for a high-ankle sprain, Cleveland looked to have a chance at being Florida’s first 1,000-yard receiver since Taylor Jacobs in 2002. Missing the LSU game and most of the Texas A&M game, however, makes that number hard to reach this season.
Wide receivers not named Cleveland (↓): Heading into the season, wide receiver was often referred to as Florida’s deepest and most talented position. Even after Callaway’s suspension, many said the Gators would be fine at wide receiver because they had signed five other four-star wideout in the last two classes (Cleveland, Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain, Daquon Green and James Robinson).
Cleveland’s ankle injury showed, however, that he and Callaway are the only receivers on the roster dynamic enough to be go-to receivers. Hammond and Swain are capable second and third targets, but the passing game has suffered greatly in Cleveland’s absence. Freshman athlete Kadarius Toney has impressed as a wide receiver, but he’s not an every-down exterior wideout like Cleveland or Callaway. Cleveland’s stock is up, but the rest of the receiving corps’ stock is down.
The ground game (↑): McElwain famously declared the offensive line the strength of the team this off-season. Those words were thrown back at him in the media after Michigan dominated the line of scrimmage in a 33-17 thumping where Florida ran for only 11 yards.
Since the Michigan game, the offensive line has improved, as evidenced by the strength of Florida’s running game. The Gators finished last in the SEC in rushing offense in 2016, but currently rank No. 7 (and that’s without a cupcake game to pad the stats). The Gators have gained a total of 1019 net rushing yards this season. With only 11 yards gained against Michigan, that means 1008 yards have come in the last five games, an average of more than 200 rushing yards per game, led by freshman Malik Davis who is gaining roughly hard of those yards.
Depth at offensive line (↓): Through six games, it has become evident that Florida coaches only trust six offensive linemen. The starting five consists of junior left tackle Martez Ivey, redshirt freshman left guard Brett Heggie, redshirt sophomore center T.J. McCoy, junior right guard Fred Johnson and sophomore right tackle Jawaan Taylor. Junior Tyler Jordan rotates at right guard and also serves as a utility backup.
When Heggie has been out, Jordan has played at left guard. It’s clear that the Gators would be in trouble if two linemen were ever out at the same time and concerning that the team has not developed true depth beyond the starting five despite focusing on the position in recruiting.
The young secondary’s ability to defend the pass (←→): Losing Marcus Maye, Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson left Florida with three big spots to fill in the secondary. Figuring out the starting secondary became even more difficult after senior safety Marcell Harris tore his Achilles’ tendon.
Early in the season, senior corner/nickelback Duke Dawson, freshman cornerback Marco Wilson, freshman cornerback C.J. Henderson, sophomore safety Chauncey Gardner Jr. and senior safety Nick Washington established themselves as the starting five. On paper, it looked like the Gators were asking for trouble playing two true freshmen and Gardner out of his spring position.
The stats show that Florida is allowing the lowest completion percentage (50) among SEC defenses. The reason it’s not stock up for this unit, however, is because the Gators are ranked No. 12 as a pass defense in terms of opponents’ yards per attempt. In other words, passes are only being completed half the time, but they’re for big plays. The secondary must get better at communicating and cutting down on big plays. Wilson has already shown he’s elite in one-on-one coverage and Henderson has a pair of interceptions.
The defense against SEC running backs (↑): This one started as down after Tennessee’s John Kelly ran for 141 yards on 19 carries. In recent weeks, however, the stock is back up. Vanderbilt’s all-time leading rusher Ralph Webb was held to just 29 yards on 11 carries. While LSU ran for 216 yards, the yards were spread out. Tigers running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams ran for a combined 85 yards on 29 carries. Texas A&M’s trio of running backs combined for 43 yards on 20 carries.
The Gators have gotten much better at stopping running backs between the tackles. Receivers and other ball-carriers able to get out to the edge – on plays like jet sweeps – and running quarterbacks, however, have caused problems. The Florida defense will likely have its hands full next time out trying to contain Georgia running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.