A closer look at the Jim McElwain era after 20 games
I have long held that to be considered a successful head football coach at Florida you don't have to win the National Championship each and every season. If that were the case, with the Gators only doing so three times in their 108 year history, that would mean that there were 105 years of futility.
No, you don't have to win the big prize every year to be a success at Florida. However, in my opinion you have to accomplish these five things:
* Win in the Swamp. This is sort of a self fulfilling prophecy in that the more you win, the more intimidating the Swamp becomes, making the home field advantage an even bigger advantage. As much as a loss hurts – at least on the road some are forgivable. Florida travels to some incredibly hostile environments – places no team should expect to enter and leave with a win on a consistent basis. Plus, the bottom line is it just hurts more to lose at home. You feel as though your personal space has been invaded.
* Beat the teams you are expected to beat. When things are going well recruiting wise at Florida, realistically the Gators only play a 3-4 game schedule in even the most difficult of strength of schedule years. Now, notice I said when Florida is recruiting at the level it should be recruiting at. When they are, the Gators should be able to simply out-talent all but a couple of schools on the schedule. From a historical perspective, Florida State, Georgia, LSU and then Tennessee to a degree and of course if Alabama is the opponent in the SEC Championship, are the only teams the Gators face regularly who recruit at a high 'Florida like' level year in and year out. Yes, now and then you'll have an Ole Miss or Arkansas rise up that you have to deal with, but for the most part when UF is recruiting on the level it should be, 8-9 teams on the 12 game schedule shouldn't be able to match-up to Florida talent wise.
* At least split with ranked teams. In most years the Gators are going to face 4-5 teams ranked in the Top 25. If you can at worst split with those teams, that would mean 9-10 win seasons. You would like to win them all, but that's not realistic. At least walking way with a win half the time is acceptable. Losing two out of three or worse is unacceptable.
* Win two of three against Florida's traditional rivals. If you do well enough against Florida State, Tennessee, Georgia – and Miami in the years they are on the schedule – Florida fans will be forgiving in some other areas. A loss, any loss, huts badly enough, but to lose to one of the Gators traditional rivals is 10 times worse. Depending on where you live, you might have to put up with a Bulldog, Seminole, or Volunteers fan holding bragging rights for a full 365 days. That can become unbearable.
* Run an exciting offense. When Jeremy Foley first hired Ron Zook, one of my first comments was wondering how a defensive minded head coach would fit in at what was then known as a wide-open offensive minded school. The answer was, not very well. Foley then doubled down on that mistake by hiring Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp a decade later. Some what because of the athletic playmakers available to the Gators – but mostly because of what Steve Spurrier was able to accomplish – Florida fans simply do not want to see a boring – three-yards and a cloud of dust offense which leads to a low scoring affair. Honestly, though many may not admit it publicly, there is a significant portion of the fan base who would rather go 9-3 with an exciting, high scoring offense, than 10-2 with a grind it out, a cure for insomnia, type of offense. No, to be fully accepted by the Gator Nation, you have to play an exciting brand of football, and airing it out is the preferred method of moving the ball.
IF the Florida head coach is able to accomplish those five things the chances are damn good that the Gators will be in contention to win the SEC East, which means they will be in the running for at least a top 10-15 finish and when things align perfectly, even in the running for one of the four College Football Playoff spots.
That doesn't mean any or all of the above is going to happen every single year. Things, injuries, bad luck, etc.... happen. However, when things are going right, it should happen often enough.
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Immediately after the win over Missouri we started a poll in the Alley asking members to grade the performance of Florida head coach Jim McElwain on his 20 game Gators coaching career.
As of early Tuesday morning the consensus from those voting was that after a 15-5 start, McElwain is deserving of a B to a B-
I wouldn't necessary disagree with that assessment.
Here are my own thoughts and grades:
| CATEGORY | COMMENT | GRADE |
|---|---|---|
|
Coaching Staff |
There isn't an ACE recruiter along the lines of a Doc Holiday or Mike Locksley on the staff or even an up-and-coming next hottest thing for upcoming head coach openings such as a Dan Mullen or Charlie Strong, but overall it is a solid group of coaches and recruiters. Getting Torrian Gray and Chris Rumph were big acquisitions. Kerry Dixon was a headscratcher - and not the top choice - when hired, but has been a big positive. The same can be said of bringing Tim Skipper from CSU |
B |
|
Program Building |
If you want to sustain success over many years, more goes into that than just players and schemes. Now more than ever facilities matter - and the arms race is never ending. CJM also gets high marks for significantly bolstering the football program's support staff. Something as seemingly as small as upgrading Florida's presence on social media with cool graphics is something that may go unnoticed by many, but it is one of the devils that are in the details of building a top program. |
A+ |
|
Fan Interaction |
McElwain comes across as a down to earth sort - a people person who legitimately enjoys fan interaction rather than just tolerates it. Like many Nick Saban disciples, he comes off as preferring all aspects of the program - other than showing up and cheering on Saturday's - be kept off limits from the fans. By his fourth year, Will Muschamp loosened up somewhat - opening multiple spring practices - it will be interesting to see if McElwain follows suit in that regard. |
B |
|
Media Interaction |
He isn't the confrontational type, but then again with his record considering what he took over, he really hasn't been challenged on any of his decisions. He does open up the beginning of practices, going a step further than his predecessor. It would be nice to see some entire spring and fall practices open, but that might just be the world we now live in. He can be evasive as to why a player isn't playing. |
B+ |
|
Wins/Losses |
It is hard to argue with a .750 winning percentage and is in line with superstar Florida coaches Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer. The one area where there needs to be significant improvement is his record against ranked teams. |
B+ |
|
Recruiting |
This has been the fly in the ointment. Yes, he took over a program whose brand had been left badly damaged by Muschamp, but historically the Gators recruit at a much higher level than they have been able to to this point under McElwain. If it were broken down, the offensive recruiting has been much better than on defense. |
C |
|
Roster Management |
Since arriving, McElwain and staff have been forced to over-recruit at certain positions, but that was because there were holes to fill - especially along the offensive line and at running back. While he has done a good job balancing the roster, Florida needs to pick up the pace recruiting along the defensive line, defensive tackle in particular. |
A- |
|
Overall |
There has been much more good than bad to this point. There's the East title in year one and the possibility of repeating this year. However, there is an elephant in the room - though he is a head coach with an offensive background, this team has been carried by the defense through these first 20 games while the offense, at very best, as been average. Once many of the top performers on defense move on after this year, we'll see if the offense can pick up the slack, or if Florida falls to earth. |
B+ |
The following is how McElwain stacks up against the previous four Florida coaches through the first 20 games as the head coach of the Gators.
| Category | Spurrier (1990-91) | Zook (2002-03) | Meyer (2005-06) | Muschamp (2011-12) | McElwain (2015-16) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Won/Loss |
17-3 |
12-8 |
16-4 |
14-6 |
15-5 |
|
W/L SEC |
12-1 |
8-4 |
10-4 |
9-5 |
10-2 (3)* |
|
W/L Rivals |
3-2 |
2-4 |
5-0 |
2-2 |
2-2 |
|
In the Swamp |
10-0 |
7-4 |
11-0 |
9-2 |
10-1 |
|
Biggest Win |
48-7 over #4 AUB |
19-7 over #6 LSU |
24-7 over #23 FSU |
14-6 over #3 LSU |
38-10 over #3 MISS |
|
Worst Loss |
38-21 to #17 SYR |
6-7 to #18 LSU |
30-22 to UR USCe |
21-7 to UR FSU |
41-7 to #17 Mich |
|
W/L Ranked Teams |
5-3 |
3-6 |
7-3 |
3-5 |
1-5 |
|
W/L UR Teams |
12-0 |
9-2 |
9-1 |
11-1 |
14-0 |
|
Recruiting Ranking |
NA/NA |
15/3 |
15/2 |
13/3 |
23/14 |
|
Pts Per Game |
35.0 |
28.4 |
27.8 |
27.1 |
25.0 |
|
Weeks Ranked by AP |
19 |
16 |
20 |
13 |
15 |
NOTES & OBSERVATIONS
* Officially McElwain is 10-2 (3) in SEC play. For whatever reason, SEC Championship Game results aren't included in official SEC W/L records (SEC lists UF as going 7-1 in the league last season). On the field though, he has lost three SEC games - LSU and Alabama last year, Tennessee this year.
* As described above, Florida State, Georgia, Tennessee and when they play - Miami - are the rivals used for the breakdown.
* Other than Zook, there really isn't a big discrepancy in win/loss records after 20 games.
* Look at some of those Urban Meyer numbers. 5-0 against Florida rivals, undefeated at home and 7-3 against ranked opponents. Half of his first 20 games were played against ranked opponents.
* Two numbers that look very good for McElwain early on - 10-3 (2) against SEC opponents, 10-1 at home
* Two numbers that look terrible, 1-5 against ranked opponents and 23/14 recruiting rankings.
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